The G.G. Jackson Dilemma: 2023 NBA Draft Prospect Breakdown
Taking a look at why G.G. Jackson is such a controversial prospect in the 2023 NBA Draft
In every draft, there will be players that get tagged as “Boom-or-Bust” prospects. This year there are multiple, but in terms of controversy G.G. Jackson rises to the top. You can find him anywhere from top 5-7 to fringe first-round territory on various big boards. He has tantalizing upside, but it’s clear that he has a long way to go before he can be a high-level contributor in the NBA.
I lean more towards the upper end with GG, and I think he is worth consideration near the end of the lottery. I’ve moved him down recently after diving even deeper for this breakdown, but he’s still 15th on my big board. The upside and skill level is undeniable to me. He has a longer road to reaching his potential than any other top 20 prospect, but the upside is one of the best in the class. I prefer taking risks in the lottery area, so I wouldn’t mind a team in the 10-14 range taking a chance on him.
Physicals:
Height: 6’8.25 | Weight: 214.4lb | Wingspan: 6’11.5
Standing Vertical: 31in | Max Vertical: 37in
2022-23 Stats:
15.4 pts | 5.9 reb | 0.8 ast | 2.7 tov | 0.8 stl | 0.8 blk | 31.9 mpg
41.9 2pt% / 32.4 3pt% / 67.7 FT%
Offense:
Jackson played selfish basketball much of time; sometimes on purpose, and sometimes because he’s a very young kid who was clearly the best player on his team. It was a tough situation for an NBA-bound player, and many times it felt like he was taking bad shots because he genuinely believed it was his team’s best chance at scoring. That’s not me trying to make an excuse, because he clearly is not a good team player right now. However, I think it’s important to provide context that helps explain the situation at South Carolina a little more.
He posted a shocking 0.31 Assist/Turnover ratio this season. He routinely chose to take bad shots instead of hitting teammates, and missed basic reads far too much. One reason this happened so much is his habit of pre-determining his moves. Too often he enters a play with a pre-planned move, and if it doesn’t work he will immediately attempt a shot or pick up his dribble. He is legitimately good at creating shots off the dribble, but other times he isn’t confident enough in his handle to keep the dribble alive and probe the defense for openings. Part of this is again his inconsistent effort. He raises up with a live dribble if he has the ball for too long, opening up opportunities for defenders to make a play.
When he wasn’t trying to create his own shot with the ball in his hands, he was often in a corner with his hands on his knees. That is obviously a red flag, but again you can’t put 100% of the blame on him. There were only two legitimate offensive weapons on the team, GG and Meechie Johnson (who also shot less than 40% from the field). Needless to say, it’s very difficult to run a dynamic offense with such little firepower. Regardless, he will need to pull a 180 when it comes to his conduct away from the ball at the next level. He can be a good floor-spacer at the next level, which gives me a lot more confidence in his transition to the NBA game. He has natural footwork and a smooth stroke as a shooter, and looks comfortable both from spot-ups and on the move. He’s not nearly as good of a shooter (67.7% from the line is a bit worrisome), but GG could fill a Michael Porter Jr-type role where he puts all his focus on solely getting buckets. He needs to be more consistent, but he’s so young and already has a solid base to build on. I like his chances as a shooter.
Quite the glowing review so far, huh? Obviously there is a lot going on that might turn you away from GG as a prospect. The reason I still believe is him as a late lottery prospect is his shooting and skill with the ball in his hands. I also think his upside as an off-ball shooter with size is a bit underrated. There is a lot of concern about his efficiency, which is fair. However, based on the lack of other offensive weapons and his shot diet it’s hard to expect much more. The shots he did make were incredibly impressive. He showed a lot of skill as a shot creator as the youngest player in college basketball. He has an NBA-level move-set, and when combined with his size and shot-making ability he could be a legit threat in the league as an isolation scorer and as a PnR ball-handler. It was rarer than I would like, but he did make solid reads as a passer on occasion. I don’t expect him to ever be a good passer, but I think there is a bit of hope there for him to not be a complete blackhole.
One more thing that worries me and could limit his upside is his rim finishing. He shot just 48% at the rim at South Carolina (42% in half-court). It’s true that better spacing and a better team would allow him more space to work with, but he was simply not very good at the rim. Despite his solid athleticism, he isn’t overly explosive. He has trouble rising up in traffic, and got blocked far too often for someone of his size and caliber. He’ll need to adjust his philosophy at the rim to become a true 3-level scorer.
Defense:
A common thing to do with bad defenders is say they have the “physical tools” to be good. It’s an easy way to say that someone with their size and athleticism should be a better defender than whatever prospect is being talked about. GG Jackson is that exact type of player, and at a certain level I agree with that sentiment. He is a plus athlete with good size, but you need to bet on him putting those tools to much better use.
The main issue with his performance on defense is simply lack of effort and focus. Understandably, that is very concerning. You’ll see in the clips below how often he reacted slowly because he was standing flat-footed or he was not even paying attention. His focus was noticeably not there much of the time, and he gave up a lot of easy shots because of it. Even when he is giving effort defensively, he is undisciplined and usually overreacts to put himself out of position. He has to do a better job of keeping his balance, staying square with his matchup, and keeping a low center of gravity when sliding.
The positive thing is that he was able to make big defensive plays at times despite his questionable fundamentals. He stuck with good offensive players on-ball with an inconsistent defensive stance. He recovered to block guards that got a step on him due to his nonchalant closeouts. There were basic mistakes happening often, but despite that he was able to be a decent on-ball defender when focused. He even had some impressive help-side blocks, but sometimes he would just move out of the way instead of contesting. I don’t ever expect him to be a good team defender, but it’s possible for him to be an average on-ball defender who occasionally makes big plays.
Conclusion:
Inconsistency and decision-making have clouded the electric offensive ability that GG Jackson possesses. His offensive game seems ready made for the modern NBA, but there are far too many head-scratching moments to feel confident about his future. He was an 18 year-old who knew his one season at South Carolina was nothing more than a stepping stone on his way to the draft, and that’s exactly how it looks on film. He thought he was good enough to go in the first round regardless of his team’s performance, and he was right. I share the concerns that surround this kid, but at the end of the day, scared money don’t make money. If you aren’t willing to take a risk that can raise your franchise to the next level, then you are destined to fail.
I can see both sides of the argument with GG Jackson. I have been relatively high on him for most of the year, but I would still say that it’s more likely he does not pan out. If he does pan out, he could be a high-level self-creator and floor-spacer who can make big plays on both ends of the court. His player archetype is extremely useful in today’s game, and I would consider taking the risk on him in the late lottery, and I really don’t think he should fall outside the top 20 on draft night. There is too much skill and too many glimpses of his potential to let him get past the middle of the first round.
Great job. Very informative